Three top-tier GOP presidential hopefuls are likely to emerge, and neither Sarah Palin nor Donald Trump are among them.
Linda Feldmann
Staff writer
March 29, 2011 at 2:49 pm EDT
Flip through any list of Republicans running for president or probably running or maybe thinking of running, and you'll find at least a couple dozen names. From Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty to Michele Bachmann, Rudy Giuliani, and Donald Trump, it's a potentially vast field peppered with outsize personalities and also folks who make you say, "who?"
Why so many?
"Because people perceive vulnerability in President Obama," says Darrell West, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution. "We have high unemployment, we have 2-1/2 wars, and there's a lot of contentiousness surrounding health care. So nobody's afraid to take on a sitting president."
By the time the Iowa caucuses roll around early next year, the GOP could easily field 10 to 12 candidates. The latest to say “I’m in” is Congresswoman Bachmann of Minnesota, a tea party firebrand and born-again Christian who could shake up the race by doing well in her native Iowa. She stole the show at last weekend’s Conservative Principles Conference in Iowa.
But it’s easy to see how a Bachmann candidacy fades in early states that are less friendly to evangelicals, such as New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida. When all is said and done, the race for the 2012 GOP nomination may boil down to just three serious contenders: former Governor Romney of Massachusetts, former Governor Pawlenty of Minnesota, and Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi. Pawlenty announced his exploratory committee on March 20; Romney and Governor Barbour are expected to do so within the next several weeks.
The rest of the crowd
And what of all the other possible candidates? Many begin as long shots, and are likely to stay there – people like Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and the only African-American in the GOP field, and Buddy Roemer, the former Democratic governor of Louisiana who became a Republican in 1991. Both have launched exploratory committees but are not generating buzz. Gary Johnson, the libertarian-leaning former governor of New Mexico, is reportedly set to bypass an exploratory committee and announce his presidential candidacy in late April. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania also looks to be running, but it's hard to see how he breaks out of the pack.
Three others could enter the top tier if they run, but for now, the signs point to their sitting this one out:
• Mitch Daniels. As Indiana governor, he has made a name for himself as a budget cutter and gave a highly regarded keynote speech on fiscal responsibility at the Conservative Political Action Conference in February. He has said he's thinking of running, and just inked a deal to write a book on limited government due out in September, but compromises with Democrats in the Indiana legislature could hurt Daniels’s chances with GOP primary voters.
•Sarah Palin. Perhaps more than anyone else, the former Alaska governor has the star power and fundraising skill to stir up the field. Recent trips to India and Israel boost her foreign-policy portfolio. But, like Gingrich, she has organizational problems and has shown little evidence that she's serious about running. Plus, now that Bachmann is “in,” Palin would face competition for the same pool of voters.
• Mike Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor has stellar communication skills but admits he's bad at fundraising. After a respectable run four years ago, it's not clear he has the fire in the belly to try again. And recent remarks about Mr. Obama's "childhood in Kenya," which he then disavowed, raise questions about his ability to appeal to a broad electorate.
Among the top three guys who are running, each has pluses and minuses. Romney is the only one to have run before, and that experience will be invaluable in a tough race. He can also draw upon personal wealth, which eases the fundraising pressure. But he has to answer for his Massachusetts health-care reform, the model for Obama's reform. And his Mormon faith still turns off many conservative evangelicals, a key part of the GOP base.
The ultimate insider
Barbour is the ultimate insider in the race, from his days as a respected national GOP chair and more recently chairman of the Republican Governors Association. Last fall he helped elect numerous Republican governors – many in critical battleground states – and they will owe him.
But his background as a lobbyist and as a born and bred Mississippian, with a syrup-thick accent, could hurt him. Recent statements on race have forced him into damage-control mode, an unfortunate place to be for one who aims to unseat the first black president. And in the end,Barbour’s candidacy could be a rerun of Phil Gramm’s in 1996, when the then-Texas senator spent $20 million in pursuit of the GOP nomination but did not even make it to the New Hampshire primary.
Pawlenty could wind up on top by default as the least objectionable. But that's hardly an endorsement for the grueling task of defeating an incumbent president. He is touting his fiscally conservative record as governor and his blue-collar background, but his demeanor is more "Minnesota nice" than Mr. Excitement.
Still, having governed a Democratic-leaning state for two terms, "he can argue that he can have some blue-state appeal – unlike, say, Haley Barbour," says Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn.
And a member of his inner circle, former Rep. Vin Weber (R) of Minnesota, insists that Pawlenty's newness to presidential politics won't hurt him, despite the GOP history of nominating people who have run before.
"I think the results of the last election convinced Republicans that they need to have fresh blood and new faces," says Mr. Weber.
And the list goes on
There are other new faces talking about jumping in, from former UN Ambassador John Bolton to soon-to-be former US Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman and even newly minted Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, a tea party favorite. Senator Paul took office only in January – though he says he won't run if his dad, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, does.
Even if the GOP nomination race comes down to just Romney, Pawlenty, and Barbour, "it will still be a long, drawn-out process" when caucuses and primaries start early next year, says Ford O'Connell, chairman of the conservative CivicForumPAC. "Iowa could go Pawlenty, Bachmann, Barbour, 1, 2, 3. New Hampshire is Romney. South Carolina is Barbour."
But the field has hardly taken final shape. Mr. O'Connell suggests that those on the fence have until the Iowa Straw Poll on Aug. 13 to jump in. After that, it gets hard for candidates to find top-tier political talent available for hire. Former Governor Palin, in particular, can afford to wait, because of her fundraising skill. But she is polarizing, and even among conservatives, her appeal is waning.
A real game-changer would be New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose blunt talk on fiscal matters has brought national notice. Governor Christie has been in office just over a year and insists he doesn't want to run for president, but in politics, never say never.
April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 June 2023 May 2023 April 2023 March 2023 February 2023 January 2023 December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021 September 2021 August 2021 July 2021 June 2021 May 2021 April 2021 March 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008