Obama’s turn to change
What is the most damaging — Democrats losing control in the House, the GOP falling short of control in the Senate, the decimated ranks of centrist and conservative Democrats, the coming investigations, the loss of 19 state legislatures to the Republicans, who will now have a lock on redistricting, or the flight of independents, women and suburban voters to the GOP? For President Obama, preparing a reelection campaign for 2012, it would be hard to imagine a worse outcome to the 2010 midterm elections.
Democrats have now vacated the South and the Midwest, and Republicans have reclaimed territory Obama won in 2008, including Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. The election shrank the Obama coalition that won in 2008, with women, independents, Roman Catholics and suburban voters all trending away from Democrats. Seniors showed up in high numbers, and a majority of them voted for Republicans.
Rural areas represented by Blue Dog Democrats were wiped out, making them much harder for Obama to win in 2012. Moreover, the loss of those conservative Democrats, combined with a GOP takeover, will make Democrats remaining in Congress — liberals in safe, mostly urban seats — likely even tougher on Obama and more confrontational in the next two years.
Polls continue to confirm that what began as a problem for Obama in his primary battle against Hillary Clinton in 2008 — the lack of support among working-class white voters — has only grown worse. A recent Associated Press-GfK poll found that white voters without four-year college degrees now support Republicans by 22 points, twice the margin they did in the 2006 and 2008 elections.
A majority of voters oppose the healthcare reform law and punished Democrats who supported it. Republicans in Congress plan to de-fund as much as they can of the law, and any Democrats remaining from swing districts will be inclined to join Republicans to support at least some, if not all, of the rescissions.
Beyond joining with Republicans to pass spending cuts, and additional tax cuts, education reform is likely the only issue fellow Democrats would like to see President Obama push in 2011. Any ideas on energy reform that have already been rejected not only by Republicans but by Democrats, even when they had more votes, are out of the question — just ask Sens. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), Jim Webb (D-Va.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) and other Democrats up for reelection in 2012. Immigration reform that couples earned legalization with border security? Forget it.
Finally, the 2010 midterms showed that the flood of outside money is only just beginning. After succeeding in spending more than $50 million on the midterm elections in 2010, conservative groups that harnessed the power of deep pockets supporting Republicans with the ability to raise funds in secret plan to aim their firepower at the presidential election in 2012. Obama — who has pushed for the passage of the Disclose Act to require more transparency — will find himself drowning, at a severe financial disadvantage should he not reverse direction so that groups on the Democratic side can hit up their own allies for large donations as well.
With forces such as these at play, the White House can no longer rely on the hope that the Republicans nominate a weak candidate and the economy improves. President Obama can’t get reelected campaigning on college campuses. He will have to realize that the voters are asking him for a change, but this time they don’t want the country to change, they want him to change. To do that he must adjust, or he will lose.
Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.
April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 June 2023 May 2023 April 2023 March 2023 February 2023 January 2023 December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021 September 2021 August 2021 July 2021 June 2021 May 2021 April 2021 March 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008