Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Voting Intentions Even, Turnout Indicators Favor GOP
Older Americans Eager to Vote…Republican, That Is
July 1, 2010
With four months to go before Election Day, voting intentions for the House remain closely divided, and neither party has gained or lost much ground over the course of 2010. However, Republicans are much more engaged in the coming election and more inclined to say they are certain to vote than are Democrats. This could translate into a sizable turnout advantage for the GOP in November that could transform an even race among registered voters into a solid victory for the Republicans.
Fully 56% of Republican voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections - the highest percentage of GOP voters expressing increased enthusiasm about voting in midterms dating back to 1994. While enthusiasm among Democratic voters overall is on par with levels in 2006, fewer liberal Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about voting than did so four years ago (52% then, 37% today).
The Republican Party now holds about the same advantage in enthusiasm among its party's voters that the Democratic Party held in June 2006 and the GOP had late in the 1994 campaign. Moreover, more Republicans than Democrats are now paying close attention to election news (64% vs. 50%). At this stage in previous midterms, news attentiveness was about the same for voters in both parties.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 16-20 among 1,802 adults and 1,496 registered voters reached on cell phones and landlines, finds that the Republicans also continue to hold a substantial advantage in the proportion of their party's voters who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. Currently, 77% of Republican voters say they are absolutely certain to vote compared with 65% of Democratic voters.
The new survey finds that 45% of registered voters say they support the Republican in their district while the same percentage favors the Democrat. While Democrats have a substantial advantage among the least engaged group of voters -- young people -- Republicans have a large advantage among the age groups that are most committed to voting - those ages 50 and older.
Voters younger than age 30 favor the Democratic candidate in their district by a wide margin (57% to 32%). Yet only half of young voters say they are absolutely certain to vote. Voters ages 50 and older favor the Republican candidate in their district by double digits (11 points) and roughly eight-in-ten (79%) say they are absolutely certain to vote.
In June 2006, Democrats held significant leads among both younger and older voters. Their advantage among voters under age 30 was about the same as it is today (56% vs. 36%), but they also held a 14-point lead among voters 50 and older (52% to 38%).
The GOP also is benefiting from a change in voting preferences among independents. Currently, Republicans have a slight edge over the Democrats among independent voters (44% to 36%). At this stage in 2006, independents backed the Democratic candidate in their district by a wide margin (47% to 32%).
Equally important, independents who say they will support the Republican candidate this November are much more engaged than those who favor the Democrat in their district. This pattern is evident across several measures - enthusiasm about voting, attentiveness to campaign news and intention to vote.
More than half of independent voters (55%) who back the Republican candidate in their district are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year; that compares with 36% of independents who prefer the Democratic candidate. While 63% of independent voters who favor the GOP candidate are closely following news about the election, just 48% of independents who support the Democratic candidate say the same. And 77% of independent voters who support a Republican say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 62% of independents who back Democrat.
The 2010 Electoral Landscape
In many ways, the 2010 campaign is shaping up as a mirror image of the midterm election four years ago. In June 2006, more Democratic than Republican voters said national issues would have the biggest impact on their vote. Anti-incumbent sentiment also was much stronger then among voters who planned to vote for a Democratic candidate than among those voting Republican.
This year, more voters who plan to vote Republican than those who intend to vote Democratic say national issues will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress (by 43% to 34%). And fully 44% of Republican voters oppose their own member's reelection, compared with just 22% of Democratic voters. In June 2006, these figures were nearly reversed (39% of Democratic voters vs. 22% of Republican voters).
The issue of which party controls Congress is as big a factor today for Republicans as it was for Democrats four years ago; 66% of those planning to vote for a Republican say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote, compared with 57% of Democratic voters. Four years ago, 68% of Democratic voters cited party control of Congress as an influence on their vote as did 55% of Republican voters.
Barack Obama is not as big a negative factor for Republican voters as George W. Bush was for Democratic voters four years ago. Currently, 52% of Republican voters think of their vote as a vote against Obama. In June 2006, 64% of Democratic voters said that about Bush. And there are now more pro-Obama Democratic voters than there were pro-Bush Republican voters four years ago (44% vs. 34%).
As was the case in 2006, voters take a dim view of both parties' congressional leaders -- just 34% of voters approve of the job performance of Democratic leaders while 31% approve of the job of GOP leaders. While Republican voters are highly enthusiastic about the election, they are not very impressed with the party's congressional leaders. Just 48% of voters who favor a GOP candidate in their district approve of the job of Republican congressional leaders while 43% disapprove. Far more Democratic voters (63%) approve of the job their party's congressional leaders are doing.
Somewhat fewer voters say that Congress has accomplished less than did so in June 2006 (35% today, 45% then). But Republican voters are currently about as critical of the accomplishments of the current Congress (52% accomplished less) as Democratic voters were four years ago (57%).
Looking Ahead to Nov. 2
Fully 72% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters expect that the GOP will do better than it has in recent elections. This is similar to Democratic expectations during the 2006 election. In June of that year, 62% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters anticipated that their party would make gains - a figure that grew to 72% by the end of the campaign.
However, Democratic voters this year are not particularly pessimistic about the election: 29% expect the Democrats to do better in this year's midterm, far more than the percentage of GOP voters who said that four years ago (16%). Nearly half of Democratic voters (48%) expect the party to do about the same this fall as in recent elections, while just 18% say it will do worse.
The optimism of Republican voters about their party's chances this fall is one factor - though hardly the only factor -- boosting their enthusiasm about voting. Among the voters who favor the Republican candidate in their district and expect the party to do better than in recent elections, 63% are more enthusiastic about voting. That compares with 45% of voters who plan to vote Republican and expect the party to fare about the same as it has in recent elections.
The high level of enthusiasm among Republican voters also is linked to strongly negative opinions about Barack Obama. Fully 62% of Republican voters who think of their vote as a vote against Obama are more enthusiastic about voting than in previous elections. By comparison, fewer than half (45%) of those who say Obama is not a factor in their vote are more enthusiastic about voting. There is a similar gap in enthusiasm between Republican voters who say party control of Congress is a factor in their vote and those who do not (60% vs. 45%).
Republican voters who agree with the Tea Party movement - about half of all GOP voters - also are more enthusiastic about voting this fall than are Republican voters who have not heard of the Tea Party or have no opinion of the movement (66% vs. 45%).
GOP Image Still Weak
Despite the Republican Party's favorable electoral prospects, its image with the public is still relatively weak. The public views the Democratic Party as more concerned about the needs of "people like me," more able to bring about needed change, and as governing in a more honest and ethical way.
These opinions are little changed from February of this year. The Democratic Party's lead on some traits is smaller than it was in October 2006, near the end of the previous midterm campaign. At that time, 55% viewed the Democrats as more concerned about the needs of average Americans, while just 27% said the GOP was more concerned.
Notably, the Republican Party holds a slight edge over the Democratic Party as better able to manage the federal government. Currently, 41% choose the Republican Party while 37% choose the Democratic Party. In October 2006, the Democratic Party held a 10-point lead as the party better able to manage the government (44% to 34%).
LINK TO FULL REPORT
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/630.pdf
April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 June 2023 May 2023 April 2023 March 2023 February 2023 January 2023 December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021 September 2021 August 2021 July 2021 June 2021 May 2021 April 2021 March 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008