It's due, it's due, it's due. NO it ain't.
One thing AI taught me about DATA is it isn't due until a tipping point, and even then, could never come up.
I had my own confirmation bias, having tracked the OH lottery for over a decade, I would scour the charts looking for what I thought was an IT'S DUE number, and spent a lot of money thinking cold numbers had to come up. Over a decade, sure they do, over a month, even a year...may not.
What the DATA analysis did tell us, a hot number, those picked 4 times in a month, is actually more likely to come up again before the cold due number. I had a hard time to overcome my bias on this idea, it feels counter intuitive.
And I wish I could say I follow the data, but take this evenings Pick 4 in OH, 8338 where both 33 and 88 have come up four times this month as 11 was due, Guess which I played. Yeppers, the losing 11.
Knowing what data tells you you should do, and actually doing gets lost in the bias we all have around. Well, now I'm going to double down on 11 even though 00 has also been drawn 4 times in July so far.
Having learned my lesson this evening, 0011 will be on my cards with several 11xx and 00xx too. Data does say that once a double digit in this game hits 5 times, it may still hit yet again this month.
But my gut says 11, and I now know better than to listen to it...but I'm still playing in spite of myself. Such is the strength of our own biases.
2 Comments:
Hmmm....that's an interesting analysis and worth noting.
One that I've never considered at least not in such terms.
I guess you could call it the FOMO (fear of missing out) syndrome which I'm sure we've all suffered from at one point or another if truth be told.
Well, for myself, before I get lost in the weeds with all the different methods/systems, types of rundowns, workouts and strategies, I decide how many combos I should play, how much I'd be spending and for how long.
Then, leave it up to the lottery gods to play one from the lot that I've chosen. Lol.
And a mantra that i have always repeated..."every combo is a winning ticket until after the draw."
PS: I have a workout method called the 2 Digits Return: Repeating Pair-Single Digit Box Combo System which has been quite reliable in spotting repeats and each time its being used (paper betting vs real $$ bets) I've scored hits. Lol.
Mobile Merchant, would you care to share your 2 digit repeating pair single digit method with us? Are you playing two digit games? Here in OH, our only 2 digit bets are either front pair, back pair or split pair on the Pick 3 game, would your system work on this? Thanks in advance.
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