Truesee's Daily Wonder

Rage against Pelosi a drag on Dems
 

Jonathan Allen
October 13, 2010 04:31 AM EDT

In the home stretch of the 2010 campaign, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, more than even President Barack Obama, is emerging as the heaviest drag on Democratic hopes of holding on to the House.

In district after district, from Florida's Gold Coast to central Ohio, in the Ozark Mountains, on the Minnesota prairie and in retiree-laden Arizona, Pelosi's face, plastered on billboards, recorded in video clips and emblazoned on mailers, is casting a pall over her colleagues’ chances of winning reelection.

Conventional wisdom holds that midterm elections are referendums on the president— and Obama is certainly the central figure in the unfolding drama of the 2010 election. But if Democrats lose the House, it’s likely to be as much a rejection of the policies and politics of a woman who has managed to simultaneously become one of the most powerful speakers in congressional history and one of the most unpopular figures in American politics today.

In less than four years as Speaker, polls show her image has been transformed from a barrier-breaking politician into something less lofty, a Democratic Newt Gingrich whose hard ideological drive has so alienated middle America that nearly every competitive race on the board is infused to some degree by voter animus toward her.

The anti-Pelosi rage that permeates Republican events and registers in public surveys will almost certainly contribute to the ouster of a wide swath of Democrats. She is the symbol of a "wrong track" Congress that has energized Republicans and left Democrats at home with their apathy. The only question is how many of her troops will be cut down.

A handful of Democrats have already asserted they will not vote for her as Speaker in the 112th Congress. Among them is Rep. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.), who went so far as to air a television ad Tuesday promising constituents that he "won't vote for Pelosi."

The pressure to break with Pelosi is intense. Along I-95 in South Florida, massive billboards depict Rep. Ron Klein as a marionette with Pelosi as puppeteer.

“Ron Klein votes with Pelosi 98%,” the billboards declare. “Fire them both!”

The National Republican Congressional Committee has aired anti-Pelosi ads in dozens of districts, many of them noting the frequency with which the Democratic lawmaker voted with Pelosi.

"Is Nancy Pelosi right 91 percent of the time?" one National Republican Congressional Committee ad against Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.) asked.

"The Pelosi/Adler agenda. Wrong for New Jersey," blared one aimed at freshman Rep. John Adler.

Steve Stivers, the Republican nominee in Ohio's Columbus-based 15th District, said his strategy to defeat freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy is simple.

"Her record mirrors Pelosi's," Stivers said. "Really, my focus is going to be on Pelosi and Kilroy."

In Kilroy's district, where Pelosi's name and image are well-known, internal campaign polling shows Obama's favorable rating is even -- at 49 percent on each side. That may help explain why Pelosi is a target and Obama really isn't.

A recent survey of 4,000 likely voters in 10 western districts by the GOP-aligned American Action Forum showed Obama's favorability in those districts slightly lower at 44 percent. But Pelosi even polled well below that—at 29 percent.

A strategy designed to demonize Pelosi didn't work for Republicans in 2006 and 2008 -- indeed, it was a miserable failure -- but it's gaining traction now, according to Ronald M. Peters Jr., a political scientist at the University of Oklahoma who wrote a recent book on Pelosi.

"The vitriol against Pelosi now is not greatly different than what Democrats expressed against Gingrich,” Peters said. “The difference was the economy was going gangbusters.”

Democrats argue that Republicans are pounding so hard because the Speaker has been so successful.

"Republicans and their special interest allies have attacked Speaker Pelosi with an unprecedented level of money for one reason - she's effective,” said Jennifer Crider, deputy executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Successfully passing President Obama and the Democrats’ agenda of middle class tax cuts, health insurance reform, Wall Street reform, and closing tax loopholes that send American jobs overseas may threaten Republican corporate special interests, but show Democrats' commitment to a strong middle class."

Some Democrats insist an anti-Pelosi message is not an effective argument -- to the extent it appears to be sticking, they say, that's because it's background noise that blends in with the roaring Republican tide.

"There is not a single race in the country where this is making an iota of difference. Not one. There are a lot of other factors, the environment, the candidates and the campaigns," Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis says. "There are larger dynamics here at play and those larger dynamics are what’s influencing elections."

Still, the finely tuned political antennae of Democratic lawmakers are picking up something, suggesting that the notion of Pelosi as a liability is shared by Republicans and Democrats alike. 

Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz says people often ask him about his links to Pelosi.

“The comeback is, every time they ask me that, people will ask me in a debate, ‘Are you just like Nancy Pelosi?’ And I’ll say, ‘I don’t know. Did she get the NRA endorsement last week? I’ll have to call and congratulate her because I didn’t see it happening.’”

The list of those threatening to withhold their votes for a return Pelosi engagement is growing by the hour: Reps. Heath Shuler of North Carolina, Bright of Alabama, Gene Taylor of Mississippi, Peter DeFazio of Oregon and Scott Murphy of New York. Two Democratic open-seat hopefuls in Tennessee have made clear they don't support Pelosi. Several others have either dodged the question entirely or are running ads that say they stood up to Pelosi on various issues.

It's enough to raise the question of whether Pelosi can hold the speakership in the event Democrats maintain control with a narrow margin -- an outcome that many Democrats wouldn't lay much money on right now anyway.

Pelosi has gone to ground: Her public appearances these days are mainly in her own backyard -- San Francisco -- where she dials for dollars and emerges for official activities. She skipped a Klein fundraiser in ritzy Coral Gables, Fla., this week.

Her aides have long denied that she's invisible on the campaign trail, pointing to private fundraisers as evidence that she's welcome around the country.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom defended Pelosi -- and the possibility that Democrats will hang tight to their majority -- in an interview Monday night.

"Never underestimate Nancy Pelosi," Newsom said. "She got more done in the last two years. When history is written don’t ever underestimate Nancy Pelosi. Everyone who’s done it has lost. I’m not saying she can pull a rabbit out of the hat. But I’m not one of the few who's convinced this thing is over."

Outside her congressional district, however, the answer is different.

Joyce Elliot, the Democratic nominee in Arkansas’ 2nd District, won’t say whether she would back Pelosi if she’s elected.

“I don’t know; it depends on who’s running and I keep hearing rumors that other folks may run,” Elliot said.

Her opponent, Tim Griffin, makes the case that the choice is between him and a Pelosi-backer.

“If you like what you’re getting from this administration as a general matter, and this Congress -- Speaker Pelosi in particular -- then don’t vote for me but for my opponent,” he said, “because you’ll get more of that.”

Richard E. Cohen contributed to this story from Levittown, Pa., Darren Samuelsohn from San Francisco, Jake Sherman from Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., Manu Raju from Little Rock, Ark., Kasie Hunt from Tempe, Ariz., and James Hohmann from Mankato, Minn.