Incumbency loses its edge in three big primary battles
Mon May 17, 8:24 pm ET
One major theme to watch for as primary returns start rolling in for Tuesday's key Senate races: Is incumbency all it's cracked up to be?
In most election cycles, holding a seat in Congress is a huge tactical advantage, since sitting lawmakers are usually able to draw on the campaign war chests that national party organizations and congressional campaign groups build up — in addition, of course, to all the time that elected officials spend fundraising on their own.
That advantage shrivels, though, when the electorate seems to be in throw-the-rascals-out mode, as seems to be the case so far in 2010. Rather than coasting into a lavishly funded media push in the homestretch of their primary races, two veteran senators — Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas — are fighting for their political lives. In Kentucky, the battle for the seat opened by Republican Jim Bunning's retirement is between a candidate endorsed by the state's GOP hierarchy, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and the self-described tea party candidate, Rand Paul. Tuesday's ballot may well signal the depth of popular anger at Washington — and might serve as a bellwether for which party ultimately gains control of Congress in November. Here's a quick primer on the big three Senate races:
Pennsylvania
When Arlen Specter switched parties a year ago, he made no secret of his main motive: political survival. Facing a nasty GOP primary against onetime opponent Pat Toomey, Specter wasn't sure he could win. In any other case, such candor might help a candidate, but not this year. Even though Specter often siphoned off some Democratic support in his previous Republican campaigns, the longtime senator has struggled to convince members of the Democratic base that's he really one of them. In recent weeks, Joe Sestak, a Democratic congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs, has closed the gap with Specter, earning endorsements from groups like the abortion-rights group NARAL and MoveOn.org. And Sestak has been savvy not merely in questioning Specter's party loyalty, but also in joining the chorus of other primary challengers denouncing incumbent politicians and campaigning for a "new generation" in Washington. To counter that argument, Specter has been highlighting his "experience" in his own campaign messages. That's not just a dig at Sestak's limited time in Congress, but also a reminder of Specter's long resume in the Senate. Unfortunately for Specter, that may not be much of a selling point for voters Tuesday.
Arkansas
Heading into the 2010 cycle, Blanche Lincoln was considered a safe bet for re-election. She was a centrist Democrat — a position that played well in Arkansas, a once-liberal state that has increasingly swung right in recent years. But Lincoln's noncommittal positions on big-ticket legislative issues like health care reform earned her the ire of liberal activists and labor unions, including the deep-pocketed AFL-CIO, which began spending money on attack ads calling for her ouster. On Tuesday, she faces Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who, in spite of getting endorsements from groups like MoveOn.org, says he's not challenging Lincoln from "the left" but more as an outsider — an argument that has traction in this anti-incumbent year. Though polling has been limited, a recent Daily-Kos/Research 2000 poll found Lincoln leading Halter by 9 points, 46 percent to 37 percent. And the race might not be over Tuesday: If neither candidate cracks 50 percent, a runoff would automatically be scheduled.
Kentucky
It's not just Democrats facing spoilers in their own party. When McConnell anointed Secretary of State Trey Grayson as the GOP establishment candidate to succeed Bunning, Republicans thought the race was over. Not so much. In recent weeks, Rand Paul — the son of libertarian Texas Rep. Ron Paul, an insurgent GOP candidate for president in 2008 — has taken a double-digit lead in most surveys. Rand Paul has made his insurgent primary bid a referendum on Washington, tapping the energy of the tea party base. He criticizes Republicans as much as Democrats and has notably refused to say whether he would even support McConnell for a role in Senate leadership should he win. While Grayson was endorsed by Dick Cheney and other key Washington Republicans, Paul picked up a major endorsement of his own: Sarah Palin. In recent days, McConnell, while not quite distancing himself from Grayson, has sought to make nice with Paul. In an interview on Sunday's "Meet the Press," McConnell insisted that the open primary was a good thing for the party — though he insisted a Paul victory had nothing to do with establishment politicians like himself.
— Holly Bailey is a senior political writer for Yahoo! News.
April 2024 March 2024 February 2024 January 2024 December 2023 November 2023 October 2023 September 2023 August 2023 July 2023 June 2023 May 2023 April 2023 March 2023 February 2023 January 2023 December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022 May 2022 April 2022 March 2022 February 2022 January 2022 December 2021 November 2021 October 2021 September 2021 August 2021 July 2021 June 2021 May 2021 April 2021 March 2021 February 2021 January 2021 December 2020 November 2020 October 2020 September 2020 August 2020 July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008