Lottery Post Journal

Bush Opens 4-Point Lead

Zogby, widely recognized as the most accurate of the pollsters (and most accurately predicted the 2000 election) has Bush with a widening 4-point lead.  These are numbers following the final debate, in which most people felt Bush at least tied.  (I personally feel he won strongly.)


ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead (48%-44%); Undecideds Move Toward the President, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals

Released: October 15, 2004

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead (48%-44%); Undecideds Move Toward the President, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals

A day after the final debate, President Bush has opened a four-point lead over Democratic rival Senator John Kerry, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll.  The telephone poll of 1220 likely voters was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday (October 12-14, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Presidential Candidates  %

Oct 12-Oct 14

Oct 11-Oct 13

Oct 10-Oct 12

Republican - George W. Bush

48

46

45

Democrat - John Kerry

44

45

45

Independent - Ralph Nader

1.1

1

1.5

Libertarian - Michael Badnarik

.7

.7

.5

Constitution - Michael Peroutka

--

--

.2

Green - David Cobb

.1

--

.1

Other

.5

.4

.8

Undecided

6

7

7

Pollster John Zogby: "While Bush-- now at 48%-- had another good night continuing his upward trend, Kerry appears stuck at 44%. The good news for the President is that he has improved his pernormance among the small group of undecideds. Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected-up from 18% in our last poll. 

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1231 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 12 through October 14, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.

(10/15/2004)
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