Lottery Post Journal

"Crooked Hillary"

For those waiting to find out the nickname Trump would label Hillary with, you now have your answer.

http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/04/17/donald-trump-reveals-nickname-crooked-hillary

Whirlpool is the last American appliance manufacturer

http://www.wnd.com/2016/03/china-is-acquiring-u-s-a-one-company-at-a-time/

If Donald Trump is not elected, I wonder how long it will be before Whirlpool moves to China or Mexico.

Political science professor: 97% chance Trump is general election winner

Good news piling up this morning!  Thumbs Up

Source

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.

Professor Helmut Norpoth's forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.

Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate's performance in their party's primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.

Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth's formula.

"The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president," Norpoth said, "if he's a nominee of the [Republican] party."

Norpoth's primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.

Norpoth began the presentation with an introduction of the potential matchups in the general election, including a hypothetical Sanders vs. Trump general election.

"When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke." Norpoth said referring to Trump and Sanders, as many alumni in the audience laughed. "Well, I'll tell you right now, it ain't a joke anymore."

As the presentation continued, laughter turned to silence as Norpoth forecasted a 61 percent chance of a Republican win in the general election.

This forecast was made using the electoral cycle model, which studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office. The model does not assume who would be the party nominees or the conditions of the country at the time.

"You think 'This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?' " Norpoth said "But that's exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in '96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012."

Norpoth then added data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries to narrow down the forecast to specific candidates. As he brought up the first slide with matchup results, the silence was broken by muttering from the audience.

"Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote]. This is almost too much to believe." Norpoth said, with a few members of the audience laughing nervously. "The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It's almost 'Take it to the bank.' "

The primary model predicts a Trump victory with such certainty due to Trump's relatively high success in the Republican primaries, Norpoth said. Clinton, in comparison, is in an essential tie with Sanders in the Democratic primaries. As a result, Sanders would also lose to Trump in a similar landslide if Sanders were to be the Democratic nominee, Norpoth said.

In contrast, Norpoth forecasted that a hypothetical presidential race with Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio on the Republican ticket would be a much closer race. The results showed Clinton with a 55 percent chance of winning the race against Cruz or Rubio with a 0.3 percent lead in the popular vote.

Norpoth's model showed Sanders losing against Rubio or Cruz with a 0.6 percent gap in the popular vote, giving a Rubio or Cruz ticket a 60 percent chance of winning against the Vermont senator.

Norpoth added that while the non-Trump Republican ticket would be much more unlikely to win the general election due to differences in the popular vote and the electoral college vote, there is almost no chance that Trump would lose the electoral college vote with his forecasted lead in the popular vote.

"If you win by 54 percent [of the popular vote], you have a big majority in the electoral college," Norpoth said. "Nobody who has ever gotten 54 percent has lost."

Still running Windows 8? Time to upgrade, or else

I see from the Lottery Post web stats that many people are still running Windows 8 on their computers.  If you're one of these people, you really need to do the free upgrade to Windows 10.

Here is the link to an article that came out today describing WHY it is so important to upgrade:  http://www.zdnet.com/article/still-running-windows-8-time-to-upgrade-or-else/

You should leave yourself about an hour to do the free upgrade.  When you're ready, go to the following link and get started:  https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/software-download/windows10

New Microsoft Surface 3

I've been a huge fan of Microsoft's Surface Pro 3 ever since it came out last August.  I purchased one of the Intel i7 models, and it was able to successfully replace my laptop, just as Microsoft claimed it could.

It's an incredible computer/tablet.

Now Microsoft has come out with the Surface 3 (note the word "Pro" missing), which is available for pre-order, and ships in early May.

I was at a Microsoft store in the mall today, and Microsoft has a bunch of the new Surface 3's that you can play with in the store.

All I can say is wow, they have done it again.  The thing is a perfect replacement for an iPad, as the size is very similar, and it's extremely light-weight -- and silent, due to the fact that it is fanless.  And it starts at $499!

While the Surface Pro 3 does offer the ability to be just a tablet when you remove the keyboard, the new Surface 3 is that tablet you can just chuck in a bag to read a book someplace, and easily lounge around on the couch and surf the Internet on.  The fact that it is so light and portable makes it even more amazing that the thing is a full Windows computer also, able to run anything that a desktop PC can run.  And the screen is spectacular -- great colors and better than HD (1080P) resolution.

Now, I love Apple hardware, particularly the iPad and iPhone.  But the thing I hate about Apple products is the operating system.  I really dislike how Apple forces you to use everything within their "walled-off" ecosystem, and if Apple doesn't specifically allow something on their devices, you're out of luck. 

You have some music on your computer that you want to put on your iPhone or iPad?  You practically need to be a rocket scientist to get it into iTunes and then synchronized onto your device.  It's great for Apple, because it "forces" people to buy their music through Apple's store, but not so great for users who want to be able to use what they already have.

So the fact that Microsoft is starting to make really terrific products that can match (and exceed) what Apple has out there is great news for me -- one step closer to living Apple-free!